Billboard Biz

Jan 05 2010

GRAMMY GOLD RUSH

ALBUM OF THE YEAR

The Grammys went pop in 2010, with album of the year nominations looking an awful lot like top 40 radio playlists.

The outlier is Dave Matthews Band, nominated for "Big Whiskey and the GrooGrux King," its seventh album and first album of the year nomination. But the four other contenders are ripped from the Billboard Hot 100: Lady Gaga’s "The Fame," Beyoncé’s "I Am . . . Sasha Fierce," the Black Eyed Peas’ "The E.N.D." and Taylor Swift’s "Fearless."

Tom Corson, executive VP/GM of Matthews’ label, RCA Records, says that while winners are always hard to predict, it’s certainly possible that the four pop acts might split the votes and result in a victory for DMB. And tradition is certainly in the band’s favor. "The last few winners were all proper longtime album artists, too," Corson says.

Another act hoping that the run of established artist victories continues is the Black Eyed Peas, nominated for its fifth studio album. "It’s been a long time coming," says Dennis Dennehy, executive VP of marketing and publicity at Interscope. "You’ve got a phenomenal producer and songwriter in Will.i.am and phenomenal talent as well in every other member of the group. How they’ve built themselves over the course of a decade has led up to the way the songs on this album have connected. As we’re getting ready to launch a fourth single, you can’t argue over the depth of the album. The Peas’ time has come for this recognition; some might say it’s overdue. But we and they are happy to have it either way."

Establishing the depth of an album was a key part of Beyoncé’s success, according to Sony Music Label Group chairman Rob Stringer. "The strategy that worked really well was the idea of keeping the public informed that this was not a one-track record," he says. "The industry is guilty of doing one-track albums; with iTunes it’s become a track economy. But with ‘If I Were a Boy’ and ‘Single Ladies,’ people knew right away that this was more than a one-track album. Then came ‘Halo.’ That was a pretty powerful one-two-three punch before we even got to other strong songs like ‘Sweet Dreams’ and ‘Video Phone.’ "

But traditions, of course, were made to be broken, and Vincent Herbert, who signed Lady Gaga to his Interscope imprint Streamline and executive-produced "The Fame," says now might be her time to shine. "A win could cement her as an artist," he says. "She’s sold 7 million records worldwide, ‘Bad Romance’ is climbing the charts, and we’ll have a No. 1 record, her fifth, probably in 2010. It’s never been done before, and she’s writing all of it, she’s selling merch, doing three nights at the Nokia Theatre in L.A. and three at Radio City [Music Hall in New York], all sold out. All of this confirms she’s a real artist."

Whoever wins, one benefit they’ll likely all see is an increase in sales. While the massive post-ceremony increases that were once common are now gone, last year’s winner, Robert Plant & Allison Krauss’ "Raising Sand," got a 715% bump, with 77,000 copies sold the week after the Grammys, according to Nielsen SoundScan. Of course, all five nominees this time around already have impressive numbers, as of press time: "Big Whiskey and the GrooGrux King" has sold 970,000; "The Fame" 2.1 million; "I Am . . . Sasha Fierce" 2.6 million; "The E.N.D." 1.6 million; and "Fearless" 5 million.

SONG OF THE YEAR

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, chances are you’re familiar with this year’s song of the year nominees: Beyoncé’s "Single Ladies (Put a Ring on It)," Lady Gaga’s "Poker Face," Swift’s "You Belong With Me," Kings of Leon’s "Use Somebody" and Maxwell’s "Pretty Wings." While Grammy nominations, performances and wins generally boost sales and exposure, particularly for acts that don’t get a lot of other massive TV play in the United States, publishing insiders differ on how much a nomination alone raises a song’s synch opportunities or value.

A Nielsen report last year found that during the previous three years, nine out of 10 artists who won or performed on the Grammy telecast saw an increase in album sales. Three-quarters of those also had spikes in digital song sales. In terms of nominations, Plant & Krauss had a jump of 88% for "Raising Sand" the week after it was nominated in five categories in 2008.

Those stats bode well for publishers’ mechanical royalties, particularly when it comes to a band like Kings of Leon, Bug Music CEO John Rudolph says.

While Rudolph says a song of the year nomination or win could raise interest from brands in the use of a song, "it’s not really that big of an impact on the synch side," other than minor uses in Grammy highlight coverage. When it comes to Kings of Leon, "all the [music] supervisors are very aware of them." But "where it does impact is sales, for folks who don’t watch Fuse or MTV or VH1 or GAC," Rudolph says. Kings of Leon’s album "Only by the Night" has sold 1.6 million copies, and "Use Somebody" has sold 2.6 million digital downloads, according to Nielsen SoundScan.

"Poker Face" and "Single Ladies" already have been ubiquitous on TV—particularly on talk shows and "Dancing With the Stars"-type reality programs—and interest in placement of these songs isn’t abating. "Single Ladies," for instance, appears in the recent film "Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel."

As far as synch value, "there’s no direct enhancement, but the bottom line is that if you win song of the year, the audience that watches the Grammys knows it’s song of the year, and the performances get picked up and played," Sony/ATV Music Publishing chairman/CEO Martin Bandier says. "But for a song to become a standard, it has to stand on its own."

Sony/ATV has a share in four out of the five song of the year nominees, with the exception of "Use Somebody." Bandier says Grammy wins, such as those bestowed on Norah Jones’ "Don’t Know Why," can enhance the prestige and value of an artist’s catalog over time.

Brian Monaco, COO of music resources and strategic marketing for EMI Music Publishing North America, agrees that a Grammy afterglow exists for writers, artists and songs. "We see a spike in people calling and we try to close deals after that," Monaco says. And once a Grammy win goes on a songwriter’s résumé, "everyone wants to work with them all of a sudden."

A win can also enhance the value of a Grammy-winning songwriter’s lesser-known songs, adds Sam Kling, head of A&R for peermusic, which has a share of "Single Ladies." A Grammy win "will solidify that [a song’s] value is at a different level than a lesser hit. We will certainly build that into fees that we quote," Kling says.

RECORD OF THE YEAR

The record of the year nominees provide a fun fact for music trivia aficionados: This year marks the first time since the 42nd annual Grammys in 2000 that all five nominees were also top 10 hits on the Hot 100.

In that year, four No. 1s made up the record of the year nominees: TLC’s "No Scrubs," Ricky Martin’s "Livin’ La Vida Loca," "Cher’s "Believe" and Santana’s "Smooth." Rounding out the quintet was Backstreet Boys’ "I Want It That Way," which reached No. 6 on the Hot 100. This year’s field includes two former Hot 100 No. 1s: the Black Eyed Peas’ "I Gotta Feeling" and Lady Gaga’s "Poker Face." Also vying for the statuette are Swift’s "You Belong With Me," which peaked at No. 2; Kings of Leon’s "Use Somebody," which reached No. 4; and Beyoncé’s "Halo," which topped out at No. 5.

Produced by David Guetta and Frederick Riesterer, "I Gotta Feeling" has rung up 4 million downloads, according to Nielsen SoundScan. The feel-good anthem followed the Peas’ smash "Boom Boom Pow." Interscope’s Dennehy says "Feeling" resonated with fans because of its lingering first impression. "It’s the immediacy of the song," he says. "The first time you hear it, the beat and hook get inside your head. I’ve been to college and pro sports events where everyone knows the words."

Also leaving a strong impression—to the tune of 4.3 million downloads—was "Poker Face." Helmed by hot producer RedOne, the song is one of several singles from "The Fame" album that primed one of the year’s most notable breakouts. "If she wins in this category, Lady Gaga will be exposed to a new audience," Streamline’s Herbert says. "The Grammy brand is a stamp of approval."

Swift co-produced "You Belong With Me" with Nathan Chapman. Netting 2.5 million downloads, according to SoundScan, the tune was instrumental in helping the singer/songwriter rack up a host of industry awards, including Billboard’s 2009 Artist of the Year. Already announced to perform on the Jan. 31 Grammy telecast, Swift recently told Billboard (Dec. 19, 2009) that she’s loving every minute of her career thus far. "There’s never a moment when I’m not thinking about a certain aspect of it. There’s never a point when I feel like I know all I need to know about the music industry."

Also joining Swift and the Peas as a Grammy performer will be Beyoncé. She and OneRepublic’s Ryan Tedder produced "Halo" (2.1 million downloads). Sony’s Stringer describes the song as a "rousing anthem, almost a hymn whose lyric is inspiring. ‘Single Ladies’ is fun but ‘Halo’ reflects Beyoncé’s uplifting spirit. The way she does it live . . . the crowd goes bananas."

Speaking of anthems, Kings of Leon scored on that front with "Use Somebody." Produced by Jacquire King and Angelo Petraglia, the song—with 2.6 million downloads—was one of the highlights on the RCA band’s recently wrapped 18-month tour. "Use Somebody" is also up for song of the year.

BEST NEW ARTIST

While best new artist is one of the ceremony’s most closely watched categories, the rules behind it are some of the most obscure.

Despite a flurry of complaints from fans that Lady Gaga was ineligible this year (for more on that, see the case study on Drake, below) and that artists on their second or third albums still qualify as "new"—the Jonas Brothers were nominated in 2008—a win in the category serves as a key sales boost for up-and-coming artists.

The week after last year’s Grammy show, for instance, best new artist winner Adele—who also performed on the show—saw sales of her album "19" increase 218% to 57,000, according to Nielsen SoundScan, her best sales week to date.

As in past years, the best new artist pool tapped acts from a variety of genres, and Atlantic Records country group Zac Brown Band is the top-selling nominee of the bunch. "The Foundation"—the act’s major-label debut after releasing its first two albums independently—has sold 1.3 million copies, according to SoundScan. First singles "Chicken Fried" and "Whatever It Is" reached No. 2 on Billboard’s Hot Country Songs chart, while follow-up "Toes" hit No. 1. Frontman Zac Brown and his five bandmates also won top new vocal duo or group at the Academy of Country Music Awards.

In addition to their shared label home, Columbia’s MGMT and the Ting Tings both appeal to the mainstream with indie-minded pop songs. MGMT—also nominated for best pop performance by a duo or group—sold 530,000 of debut album "Oracular Spectacular," while the Tings Tings, who recently signed to Jay-Z’s Roc Nation label, sold 301,000 of their debut, "We Started Nothing," according to SoundScan.

The Silversun Pickups, meanwhile, have drawn as much attention for their nomination as Gaga has for her omission. Though the Los Angeles indie band found chart success with its 2006 debut album, "Carnavas" (Dangerbird), the Pickups were still eligible for best new artist this year on the strength of sophomore effort "Swoon," which sold 195,000.

R&B artist Keri Hilson’s "In a Perfect World . . ." (Mosley Music Group/Zone 4/Interscope) has sold 487,000 copies since its release, and breakout single "Knock You Down," featuring Kanye West and Ne-Yo, peaked at No. 3 on the Hot 100. It’s not the first time Hilson has experienced success in the music industry—as a member of songwriter/producer collective the Clutch, she’s written for Britney Spears and Usher—but she’s ready for the next phase of her career.

"It hasn’t just been a year for me, it’s taken my whole life to get to this point," Hilson says. "This only drives me harder to accomplish more."

CASE STUDY: DRAKE

Drake isn’t a singer—and he’s the first to admit it. When he released his highly touted 2009 mixtape "So Far Gone," which finds the Toronto-raised artist singing and rapping, he thought he made a huge mistake. "People were like, ‘What is this? There’s way too much singing on here,’ " he says. "We were really nervous about it and for like a week I was having a serious breakdown."

But a month later, Drake, born Aubrey Graham, realized there was a method to the madness. "Within like four weeks I noticed I had a brand-new sound that takes a while to digest and understand. Things started to pick up and I started to learn the value of taking risks," he says.

Now, the venture is paying off. Last month when the Grammy nominations were announced, Drake learned he was up for best rap solo performance and best rap song for "Best I Ever Had" off "So Far Gone."

"I can’t say this is unexpected, because, I mean, it’s something that’s kept me up many nights," the 23-year-old says. "I dreamed about this for a lot of years and have lost lots of sleep over it. This is like the highest honor and I am humbled by this. It’s one of the few awards that isn’t a popularity contest; you have to make great music to be honored, and this is completely surreal to me."

It’s an honor, however, that has an unintended side effect. With the two nominations that stemmed from his mixtape, that puts Drake out of the running for best new artist in 2010, when his debut album is released.

Lady Gaga experienced a similar technicality in 2009, as she was ineligible for best new artist since her track "Just Dance" was nominated for best dance recording the previous year. The best new artist rules say the nominated performer is eligible for "the first recording which establishes public identity," and a prior nomination indicates that this threshold has already been reached.

But that may be just a tiny regret for Drake, who is set up to receive tremendous exposure for his forthcoming set. Drake, who got signed to Universal Motown through mentor Lil Wayne’s Young Money label shortly after the release of "So Far Gone," is prepping "Thank Me Later," slated for a February release. "The best part about ‘So Far Gone’ was that I didn’t focus on structure. The only thing that was consistent was the story and the emotion. That’s what I want to do with this album," Drake says. "I make music for people to get lost in it, so, as long as it takes you somewhere, then I’ve succeeded."

So far, the album features West, Wayne, Young Jeezy and Jay-Z, and a collaboration with Sade is on Drake’s wish list. "Something happened last night too that might be great—it might serve as the legendary sprinkle for the album," Drake says about another potential partnership on the set. "Shut It Down" and "Fireworks" are two tracks slated to make the album’s final cut.

"In 2010 I’m really hoping I can stay true to this new way of life I’ve committed myself to," he says. "I have a special plan to keep the free flow of music going after the album is released. This is definitely a unique path I’m setting out on, and honestly, it’s great. I’m honored to be in this position." ••••

Reporting by Ayala Ben-Yehuda, Keith Caulfield, Mariel Concepcion, Cortney Harding, Monica Herrera and Gail Mitchell.