On Friday, South Africa’s familiar Super Rugby line-up takes its place at the starting lin e for a marathon

On Friday, South Africa’s familiar Super Rugby line-up takes its place at the starting line for a marathon that is wrapped in poignancy and uncertainty because of unfinished business in the Saru boardroom, but the Sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of the Stormers, Sharks, Bulls, Lions and Cheetahs could have the positive outcome of giving the local challenge an unprecedented edge.

The only thing guaranteed in Super Rugby in this country right now is that the Southern Kings will occupy one of the five South African spots next year, and at this stage that effectively means that one of the five usual suspects that have been campaigning since 2006 (the Cats disbanded into the Lions and Cheetahs at the end of the 2005 Super 12) will either drop out into damning obscurity or be forced into an amalgamation … who knows what solution Saru are sweating over right now behind closed doors, and by the same token who knows what legal action the established Big Five collectively have up their sleeves should it come to one of them having to drop out and thus have their livelihood extinguished – you can be sure that if it comes to that, no franchise will go quietly.

So much speculation, so much up in the air … except for the one thing that the threatened franchises to an extent can control – how they perform on the field.

Never before has it been so important to avoid the wooden spoon (and the possible life-threatening ramifications that go with it). There is an unprecedented need to prove one is worthy of Super Rugby status and actions on the Super Rugby field will speak louder than the words of CEOs in the boardroom.

Adding intrigue to all of this is the fact that this is the most open South African challenge anybody can recall. Usually, we have two teams head and shoulders above the rest that contest the play-offs, a third team destined for mid-table and two bottom-dwellers that fight it out for last spot on the overall log.

In 2012 there is no obvious stand-out team and no reasonable certainty over who will finish first and last. There has been a levelling out in quality of playing personnel across the five franchises.

The Stormers, last year’s Conference winners, are much of muchness compared to last year, possibly a small step down after losing a few key players; the Bulls, who finished an uncharacteristic seventh in 2011, will arguably finish round about there again having replaced jaded veterans with hungry but inexperienced youngsters; the Sharks earned a wild card into the play-offs last year and this season have better all-round depth and will challenge strongly for the conference top spot; the Lions surely will take some of their Currie Cup momentum onto the Super Rugby stage and finish substantially higher than last year’s 14th; and the Cheetahs’ first-choice, fully-fit starting XV will compete with the best but if they pick up injuries, which is inevitable in such a long competition, they could end up slipping to the bottom of the Conference.

For the Stormers, it remains to be seen if it is significant that backroom analyst Rassie Erasmus’ departure is significant; here will be a questions over how badly the franchise will be affected by the departure of key men in centre Jaque Fourie and openside flank Francois Louw.

The absence of Fourie could well spark a career revival for Bryan Habana, who is being tried out in the position he played for the Lions as a youngster, but replacing Louw will be more problematic because the Cape team do not have an out-and-out ball stealer of Louw’s ability.

The Bulls are starting again after losing the backbone of their team and while Heyneke Meyer has done a good job in identifying and recruiting the next era of Bulls stars, they cannot be expected to immediately flourish. They need a season or two to find their feet, and in the meantime they are captained by a man out-of-form in Pierre Spies. If Morne Steyn gets injured, they could hit skid row because they do not have quality flyhalf cover.

Lions coach John Mitchell is too experienced and astute to allow the Lions to squander their Currie Cup-winning momentum and even if Super Rugby is a big step-up, the Lions for the first time have self-belief and confidence entering this competition.

The Cheetahs were crowd pleasers last year because of their ability to score tries from anywhere on the park but, unfortunately, their defence was not of the same standard. If Juan Smith and Heinrich Brussow can stay fit to complete the loose trio with Ashley Johnson, the Cheetahs will be very competitive, but as is the case in many of their positions, if you wipe out the front-runners there is not much else.

The Sharks at last have consistency at 10 in Patrick Lambie and with Frederic Michalak set to play 9, they have one of the most exciting combinations in the competition. Their Achilles heel could be depth in the tight five should key men pick up injuries.

by Mike Greenaway